How Lord Patel forecast the industrial slump 2 years ago based on new car registrations

Click on image to enlarge ....
We posted this modest little note Friday, March 30, 2007 UK : Number of vehicles up , new ones down

Which we tagged (very presciently) "Straws in the wind"

The total number of motor vehicles licensed at the end of 2006 was 1.4 % up on the end of 2005 at 33.4 million.

The number of vehicles registered for the first time during 2006 was 3.6 % down on 2005 (cars of all types -4.2%)

With the exception of taxis there were decreases in first time registrations for all body types. Full DVLA annual statistics

Today we discover that

Just 61,404 cars were manufactured last month, 58.7 % down on January 2008. Construction of commercial vehicles slumped by an even larger 59.9 %.

Almost all the cars made over the month - 83.5 % - were allocated for export as UK demand tails off, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

We are continually told that "no-one could have foreseen" the credit crisis ... it was staring them in the face and any motor trader would have told you so.

Here is another forecast - the UK will lose 50% at leat of it's car manufacturing capacity in the next 6 months... and it will never return.

UPDATE : 9.30 GMT : Geordie lady calls up and reminds us that old horny baldy, Adam "Shagger"Applegarth was exchanging body fluids with that lovely lady from Buy to Let and simultaneously divesting not only of all his clothes (ugh) but also of all his Northern Rock shares in 2006 and Jan 2007 at the very top f the market .... so he plainly new something .. so we aren't so clever.

Wonder what the £300K per Annum Ex (very) Non Executive Chairman of NR Eton / Cambridge educated Lord Matt Ridley Esq., (He was Chairman of the curious political "think" tank , Ditchley Foundation - now followed by John Major ex MP . List of Governors makes interesting reading - inc. Ms Shami CHAKRABARTI, CBE. Director of Liberty these days) who is as silent as the grave these days;
1. Was doing with his shares at the time
2. Thinks of Shagger' business / private life
3. Is looking for a job