IDF to hit Hezbollah / Hamas soon - or very soon - even

John Keegan writes an exceedingly interesting article in the Daily Torygraph today ...

He concludes .....

What is certain is that – probably before the year is out – Israel will have struck at Hizbollah in south Lebanon. And the strike will come even sooner if Hizbollah reopens its missile bombardment of northern Israel from its underground systems.

He explains the role of tunnels / bunkers in warfare - especially in Vietnam and how they played a major role in the Hezbollah resistance.... and also their role as a supply route in Gaza.

Tunnel systems have played a crucial part in many modern campaigns, without attracting much attention. That is a serious oversight. The success of the Viet Cong in sustaining its war effort in Vietnam in 1968-72 depended heavily on its use of the so-called War Zone B, a complex of deep tunnels and underground bases north of Saigon, which had been begun during the war against the French in 1946-55.

He goes on to explain to explain the absolutely fundamental function of the IDF ...

Since Israel's reason for existence is to provide a secure base for the Jewish people, and that of the IDF is to act as their shield and safeguard – functions that have been carried out with high success since 1948 – it is obvious that neither can tolerate a zone of invulnerability occupied by a sworn enemy located directly on Israel's northern border.

He also identifies the well known, directed and ruthless policy of the Israel Gubment - (not in any way reduced after the introduction of Mr Leiberman trailing clouds of Netanyahu and Sharon. ED.)

Destroying the underground military facilities may be straightforward, but it is likely to create diplomatic complexities, particularly with the UN. Entering south Lebanon risks provoking a clash with Unifil, the major part of whose strength is provided by France. It is unlikely that such a risk will deter Israel. When national survival is at risk, Israel behaves with extreme ruthlessness. It attacked an American communications ship during the Six-Day War because it objected to America listening in to its most secret signals.

He doesn't mention of course that the Liberty sailors who survived are sworn to absolute secrecy under threats so dire that nobody has yet really told the full story. If anything shows the power of the Zionist Lobby in America it is the Liberty incident.... and that was in 1967 ... things have only got worse since.

He also adds concerns about Syria which might explain the recent diplomatic efforts which have been publicised this week ..

The big question hanging over an Israeli return to south Lebanon is whether that would provoke a war with Syria, Lebanon's Arab protector. The answer is quite possibly yes, but that such an extension of hostilities might prove welcome both to Israel and to the US.

Keegan is a well informed commentator and his stark conclusion provides a sobering view of the near term prospects inn the ME. It reflects the recent massive reprisal in Gaza after a recent rocket attack.

In recent days, senior Israeli military officers have argued for a broader assault on the strip, since the rocket attacks, while declining in intensity, have continued. Israel's security cabinet rejected the military's request Wednesday but voted to continue what Israeli officials describe as ``pinpoint'' operations.

Perhaps it is worth remembering that Suez was launched just before the US presidential election ... does the distraction afforded by next's week voting in the US offer an opportunity ?

See article y Avni at Anti War