"“We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.” "


Chinese premier Wen Jiabao 12th March 2009


""We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."


Timothy Geithner US Secretary of the Treasury, previously President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.1/3/2009

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Electricity shortages in UK - Wholesale price uo 300%

Sunday, 16 April 2006,
Power shortage risks 'overplayed' BBC

"Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks has accused a group of MPs of "over-egging" the risk of electricity shortages."



The UK wholesale electricity market on Monday evening was trading at around £80 per Megawatt Hour - by yesterday this had jumped to £260 per megawatt hour a rise of 300%.

National Grid issued a warning of electricity shortages due to an unexpected increase in consumption due to the hot weather (air conditioning maybe ?), planned outages for summer maintenaqnce and the loss of some generating capacity due to other problems. The basic problemn is the system is tuned to run at 87% utilization - gone the days post war when it was 55% / 60% run by UK mined coal.

For example Eon UK, (AKA Powergen), has run its oil-fired power station at Isle of Grain in Kent because an accident closed their Ratcliffe , Notts unit two weeks ago.

Higher energy prices naturally produce inflationary pressure in the UK economy, yesterday , the Office for National Statistics (OMS) the consumer price index increased from 2.2 in May to 2.5 per cent in June - which could expect to impact on decisions on interest rates.

You can examine UK electricity demand on the National Grid website. Realtime data is available here

Which shows at 10. 31 we are importing electricity from France via the Interconnector - which is not unusaal but shows how the Frenbch supply forms part of the standard UK baseload.

The page here

shows the looming and increasing Residual Reseve requirement.i.e why a warning was issued as generating capacity fails to meet demand.

The Winter consulation document just published by the National Grid is available here

Gas

"On the basis of these responses we have made only a small downward
revision to the supply base case that we put forward for consultation. Nonetheless,
a high degree of uncertainty remains, with a wide range of possible outcomes
around the revised base case."

"The uncertain background translates into a wide range of potential values for the
2006/07 storage safety monitors."

Electricity

"Due to continued high energy prices no growth in demand has been assumed between winter 2005/06 and winter 2006/07."

"In our May document, we asked if there is scope for investment prior to winter
2006/07 to provide back-up capability at existing power stations. Most respondents
have said that such scope is infeasible due to the significant challenges posed by
the need for physical modifications, environmental authorisations, planning, outages," i.e it is not worth bringing in old capacity best work out the bag os assets we have as much as possible.

Quotes © National Grid plc, all rights reserved.

Nuclear Power Stations Dungeness A and Sizewell A will be de-commissioned from January 2007.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

There should be a long term plan about the gas and electricity so that the wholesale price fluctuation should be maintained to a minimum.

ziz said...

Even if an ideal it is totally impractical in UK as :

1. 70 % of power generation os owned by foregn based operators who have other priorities and agendas - EDF is of course state owned.

2. Nearly 50% of the gas used to generate electricity today Jan 16th is imported (it drops in the summer) - this will rise eventually as N Sea and Morecambe Bay run out to 80-90%. Also comes from Russia who turn it off/on as they wish,Algeria with rising political instability and distant Qatar (who also own the Milford Haven LNG terminals).

3. UK mined coal is max 30% of use for power, and declining and world supplies are tight and at highest ever price with little prospect of any reduction.

4. No possible increase in UK Hydro.

5. Wind power is at most 1 % of YK consumption may finally reach 5% but massive costs involved in Grid connection.

6. Marine power is a 30 year old dream. (Nuclear fission a 50 year dream)

7 Photovoltaics in these latitudes will never be cost effective (with present and known technical developments). e.g Sharp low cost. high efficiency panels on CIS building in central Manchester cost the equivalent of £66 K for a standard 3 bd semi simply to buy for average consumption.

Get ready for Forthcoming UK Energy Deficit (FCUKED) endlessly peddled here since 1999.

Buy shares in candle manufacture and stock up on Damart Thermawear and a few new jerseys.

ziz said...

Not mentioned nuclear power as this is still up in the air, at best we will simply replace the current 15-20% of electricity supply.

PS : 14 nuclear power stations on current (french built (and much delayed) Finnish power plant) could be built for the £55 odd Bn going down Northern Wreck Black Hole.

(C) Very Seriously Disorganised Criminals 2002/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 - copy anything you wish